Whether it’s the climate crisis, financial markets, global health or the stability of pension systems – our times are characterized by complex uncertainties. Many developments are difficult to predict and solutions to problems are hard to develop. Researchers in various disciplines are trying to develop methods to deal with this uncertainty. The theory of imprecise probabilities plays a central role in this. This theory is the focus of ISIPTA 2025, the “International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications”, which will take place from July 15 to 18 at the Center for Interdisciplinary Research (ZiF) at Bielefeld University.
“Unlike in other eras of uncertainty, the ecological, demographic, economic and technological uncertainty we are experiencing these days is perceived as persistent and not the result of a lack of experience in a new environment,” explains Professor Dr. Frank Riedel from Bielefeld University. “Overcoming these challenges requires interdisciplinary collaboration. Our conference will bring together researchers from different disciplines such as economics, finance, engineering, computer science and mathematics to develop joint solutions.” Riedel is co-chairing the conference with Professor Jasper de Bock (Foundations Lab for imprecise probabilities, Ghent University) and Professor Dr. Max Nendel (Waterloo University, formerly of Bielefeld).
© Gent, Bielefeld and Waterloo Universities
For many things that we do not know exactly, we can at least give probabilities, such as the probability of a coin coming up heads or tails when it is tossed. For some phenomena, however, it is difficult to specify this probability. They form the field of imprecise probabilities. “The theory of imprecise probabilities provides a theoretical basis for analyzing the effects of model uncertainties, for example in the pricing of assets, in strategic interactions between agents, in the field of machine learning and in connection with safety margins in technology,” says Max Nendel.
From George Boole to today – The development of the theory of imprecise probabilities
The origins of this theory go back to the work of George Boole in the 19th century. The ISIPTA conference, organized by the Society for Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications, has been held every two years since 1999. It serves as a platform for the exchange of information on current developments in research and application. “Before the conference series was founded, many approaches to modeling uncertainty were developed in isolation,” says Jasper de Bock, the current president of the society. “ISIPTA has made a significant contribution to connecting different research directions and creating a common theoretical basis.” 85 researchers from all over the world are expected to attend this year’s conference. The aim is to deepen the interdisciplinary dialog and build bridges between the social, natural and technical sciences.
